More than three months after the US and Israel first began their war with Iran, the White House and the Iranian regime have agreed a framework deal to bring about a more long-term end to hostilities.

The Middle East crisis sent global oil prices soaring as the conflict effectively closed one of the world's key water transport routes for oil, liquid natural gas and other essential commodities, limiting global supplies.

But experts warn a return to normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will take time, and the impact of the war will continue to affect the global economy for potentially months to come.

"Let the oil flow!" US President Donald Trump said in a social media post heralding the agreement, which he said would include the reopening of the strait to commercial shipping.

BBC Verify has been checking ship-tracking data which appears to show that traffic levels remain low in the Strait of Hormuz, despite the announcement.

According to ship tracking website MarineTraffic, only two vessels with active location trackers have exited the waterway since Sunday – a bulk carrier and a tanker.

The strait has been closed to most shipping traffic since 28 February, with only limited numbers of vessels friendly to Iran able to pass through.

About 200 vessels have been stuck in the gulf, with the risk of sea mines or drone strikes driving up the danger to crews and preventing safe passage.

Neil Shearing, group chief economist for Capital Economics, said it remained to be seen whether the latest deal "represents a fragile truce or a durable settlement".

He added that it was likely it will "take some time for oil flows through the Strait to return to pre-war levels".

"Even if ships now have safe passage, tankers are in the wrong place, oil production/refining facilities need to get up to full capacity, and questions over the cost and availability of insurance for ships traversing the Strait will remain," he said.

Even before the agreement, during the ongoing ceasefire, shipping companies were largely reluctant to try to move their vessels out of the strait – and getting those vessels out will be their first focus.

Normally, about a fifth of the world's oil and LNG supplies flow through the strait, and the effective halt to traffic has increased oil prices. That in turn has had a knock-on effect on petrol, diesel and jet fuel costs.

During the conflict, the price of Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, peaked at around $120 a barrel, whereas before hostilities broke out it was just below $70.

Following news of the framework deal, Brent fell to $83.55 a barrel.

President Trump said that the Strait of Hormuz would open once the "deal" is signed on Friday, "for purposes of mine removal".

However, it could be "weeks to months" for all the mines to be cleared, a retired US Navy rear admiral told the BBC Radio 4's Today programme.

Admiral Mark Montgomery, who is also a senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defence of Democracies, also said getting supplies through the strait back to normal would not be "an overnight thing".

"I would say that's going to take a month or 45 days to kind of fully get till you're at a normal pumping balance, and vessels moving in and out smoothly," he said.

Global food prices could also be helped if supplies of fertiliser get closer to normal levels again. Fertiliser, a by-product of oil, has soared in costs, putting pressure on farmers.

Maurizio Carulli, global energy analyst at Quilter Cheviot, said the ceasefire "should help ease the immediate pressure on fertiliser markets" – but it won't be instant.

He added that roughly a third of traded fertiliser and major volumes of natural gas, used for nitrogen-based fertiliser, flow through the Strait of Hormuz and that "lingering damage to energy infrastructure" will take time to repair.

"What's more, the crop season has already begun in several parts of the world, so the resumption of deliveries of nitrogen and phosphate fertilisers will be too late for agricultural crops, which will negatively affect global produce."

Jet fuel – another by-product of oil – traded in the Northwest Europe (NWE) has already seen a small fall in price.

NWE jet fuel is down to $1,033 per tonne, compared with $831 per tonne before the conflict, and around $1,840 at its peak.

The Iran war has affected economies around the world, as the jump in energy costs has pushed up fuel prices leading to a pick-up in inflation. This has put pressure on central banks to raise interest rates to keep inflation under control.

In the UK, before the war began, the Bank of England had been widely expected to cut interest rates this year. But these predictions were quickly changed as energy costs surged, with the Bank expected to hold rates, if not raise them later in the year.

Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, said: "Just last week, markets were pricing in two rate hikes by early 2027.

"The probabilities have now shifted to just one rate hike by December and then potentially no change for at least the first half of 2027.

"That could mean companies having greater confidence to hire more people, consumers being more willing to spend money, and allow the property market to warm up after having gone cold for sellers in recent months."

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